Ray Grabanski, Progressive Ag
Wheat Much of the South experienced good to heavy rains from Tropical Storm Gordon over the weekend of Sept. 8-9, which led to selling pressure to begin the week on thoughts of replenished soil moisture in the Southern Plains.
Wheat The wheat complex saw heavy losses early last week on news that Russia's foreign ag minister announced that they will not curb wheat exports despite lower yields experienced this year. The market actually performed OK, rebounding from 25 cent losses early and closing above the ever so critical 200-day moving averages. Matif Wheat futures were down 1.36 percent at $200.50 per metric ton for December on the Russian news and trended down to the $198.25 low from Aug. 28 over the next two sessions.
Wheat Wheat futures experienced very choppy trade this week reaching 200—day moving averages which provided a level of underlying support. Matif wheat futures traded to a five week low at $197.00 per metric ton September before recovering. Spring wheat harvest is at 77 percent compared to the five-year average of 61 percent. Egypt purchased 290,000 metric tons of Russian wheat and 60,000 metric tons of Ukrainian wheat. The Russian ruble remains at the bottom end of its recent range. The Black Sea Region continues to dominate into the Egyptian market.
Wheat Wheat futures trended lower all week following Matif Wheat futures lower. Matif wheat futures traded to a 3 week low in the $203.75 per metric ton September range. Technical buying came into the market at the 100-day moving averages of $5.4175 December Chicago in both Aug. 22 and 23 trade.
Wheat Matif wheat futures surged higher this week reaching $216.25 per metric ton on the September contract. The action in European wheat futures largely has the U.S. markets following. The Turkish currency plunged against the U.S. dollar which caused Russian wheat imports into Turkey to drastically decline. This backed off Matif wheat futures in August 8 and 9 trade.
Wheat World production cuts continued this week sending Matif wheat futures to highs last seen in 2014. Ukraine's wheat production is estimated at 24.1 million metric tons down from 27.8 million metric tons by a private firm. Poland estimated their winter wheat crop at 8.4 million metric tons, 16 percent less than a year ago. Germany is expected to harvest 18 million metric tons, down 25 percent from a year ago. SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports at 35 million metric tons, 10 million metric tons less than last year and 5.1 percent from their previous estimate.
Wheat The wheat market experienced losses to open the week on news of weekend rains in the primary Russian wheat growing region. U.S. spring wheat conditions remained unchanged, with 80 percent of the crop rated good to excellent, 16 percent fair and only 4 percent poor to very poor. Ninety three percent of the spring wheat crop is headed compared to 85 percent for the five-year average.